captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> woodruff: the presidential puieictorerepaord mostly out of tomorrow's town hall debate, as a blitz of political ads continued to dominate the airwaves. good evening. i'm judy woodruff. >> suarez: and i'm ray suarez. on the newshour tonight, npr's peter overby analyzes the big money behind the ad wars. >> woodruff: plus we have two takes on close congressional contests, starting with gwen ifill's report from the bay state. >> ifill: we're in massachusetts where the race for the senate seat once held by ted kennedy has become a surprising and expensive dead heat. and an unusual race to the ideological middle.

>> suarez: stu rothenberg and susan page offer up other senate matchups to watch. >> woodruff: then, we update the conflict in syria amid reports that weapons have landed in the hands of militants linked to al qaeda. >> suarez: publicity stunt or scientific achievement? hari sreenivasan talks to miles o'brien about yesterday's supersonic freefall. >> woodruff: and kwame holman remembers arlen specter, the independently minded pennsylvania senator who served as both a republican and a democrat. that's all ahead on tonight's newshour. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> computing surrounds us. sometimes it's obvious and sometimes it's very surprising in where you find it. soon, computing intelligence in unexpected places will change our lives in truly profound ways. technology can provide customized experiences tailored to individual consumer preferences, igniting a world of possibilities from the inside out.

sponsoring tomorrow, starts today. >> bnsf railway. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: president obama and mitt romney spent this day getting ready for their second debate, where questions will come directly from voters. as they did, new polls underscored what's riding on the outcome.

from the obama and romney camp came signs of just how high the stakes will be tomorrow night. republican vice presidential candidate paul ryan talked up the coming confrontation as he campaigned in cincinatti. >> these debates are giving us the ability to cut through the clutter and give people a very clear choice. that's what we're offering. ( cheers and applause ) >> woodruff: and president obama issued a new fund-raising appeal saying this race is tied. a new abc news/"washington post" poll of likely voters found the president led 49% to 46%. but that was within the margin of error. and the poll found romney now leads in the level of enthusiasm among his supporters. the president hoped to reverse that trend as he hunkered down in williams burg, virginia, to prepare. on sunday his top advisor david axle rod told fox news that

mr. obama will make some adjustments to the approach he took in the first debate. >> i mean, we saw governor romney sort of serially walk away from his own proposals and certainly the president is going to be willing to challenge him. >> woodruff: mitt romney was doing his debate homework in boston but advisor told cnn on sunday that he expects a different president obama on tuesday up to a point >> well, the president can change his style. he can change his tactics. he can't change his record and he can't change his policies. that's what this election is about >> woodruff: the candidates face off tomorrow night at hofstra university in hempstead, new york. >> suarez: late today, mitt romney announced he raised more than $170 million in september, and said that his campaign and republican national committee had $191 million in the bank at the end of the month. those efforts are boosted by spending from outside groups. according to newshour partner kantar media/cmag, groups

opposing the president and supporting romney in the general election alone have run record numbers of television commercials. that's more than 41,000 spots o from american crossroads; more fran 43,000 spots from americans foriprpeosty; and 45,000 spots from the restore our future super pac. backing president obama, the super pac priorities usa action was the only democratic- affiliated group to come close. priorities has run nearly 40,000 spots. here are the two spots with the most money behind them from each campaign. >> i'm an independent. i voted for him. i contributed to him. governor romney promised he would bring jobs to this state. by the he left office we had fallen to 37th in the nation. he cares about big business and tax cuts for wealthy people. i certainly do not believe that

he cares about my hard-working employees. i feel like i was duped by mitt romney. i'm going to vote for president obama. >> priorities usa action is responsible for the content of this advertising >> this is what president obama said the jobless rate would be if we pass a stimulus. 5.6%. but this is what the jobless rate actually is. 8.1%. the difference? about 3.7 million jobs. obama's spending drove us $5 trillion deeper in debt. now we have fewer jobs than when he started. what obama promised versus what he delivered >> american crossroads is responsible for the content of this advertising. >> suarez: the newshour >> suarez: the newshour is working with cmag and national public radio for this series of reports examining advertising spending. joining us now is npr correspondent peter overby, who took a look at super pacs. for almost 20 years you've been covering the way money drives politics in america. a lot of money is being spent

this time around. how much? do we know? >> well, the group of ads that we looked at, all the broadcast ads from april through the first week of october, about a half billion dollars worth of ads which is just phenomenal >> suarez: roughly equally by the two campaigns or is one outspending the other? >> the obama campaign and its allies are somewhat outspending the romney campaign and its allies. but not by that much. >> suarez: the independent groups, have they been coordinating ad buys with each other? they can't talk to the campaigns. but they're allowed to talk to each other. has that made a difference? >> yeah. the independent group action is almost entirely on the republican side. that's because the romney campaign had lean months, and the independent groups with their unlimited contributions coming in were able to make up for that. the best example of the

coordination was between crossroads g.p.s. and americans for prosperity. they basically were trading weeks. one would be on the air for a few weeks and then the other would be on the air for a few weeks. the result was that they almost always had at least a million dollars worth of ads running, sometimes much more than that at a time when the romney campaign was essentially off the air. >> suarez: so they were able to maintain the romney campaign's presence even when governor romney was having trouble raising money for his campaign >> exactly. both these groups are 501c-4. that means they don't disclose their donors. this is a significant amount of money in a presidential campaign coming from unidentified donors >> suarez: is there a difference in what's being stressed because karl rove is one kind of political mind and the brothers

have a different agenda. when you look at the ads, is there a different flavor to the two sets of appeals? >> not so much. the crossroads organization is really staffed with people who are interested in furthering the republican party's goals. and the coke brothers are the americans for prosperity is a coke brothers organization, grass roots, heavy emphasis on economom issues. but... and they're often rivals these two groups. but here they are united in attacking obama. all the ads they've done have been attack ads. >> suarez: there's a whole different infrastructure that stands around different kinds of money. if you give money to a party, it's one kind of money. if you give money to one of these groups it's another kind of money. if you give money directly to a campaign it's another kind. with most of the independent spending being on the romney side and most of the party and

campaign spending being on the obama side, is there an advantage or a disadvantage to having a lot of one kind of money and not so much of another? >> there's a definite advantage. on the democratic side, about 91% of the spending is done by the obama campaign itself. that shows you partly how weak the outside groups are in the democratic side. but also it shows the success of the obama fund-raising operation with the small donors they can keep going back to again and again. when romney's problem was that he didn't have a lot of small donors, he tended to get donors who maxed out, gave the maximum the first time that they contributed. so he had to find new donors. the outside groups make up for that because they can raise these unlimited contributions to disclose their contributions, their contributors, the 501c-4 groups do not. but, you know, you have groups

supporting romney that have received $10 million contributions >> suarez: once you max out, arguably on the romney campaign side, you can pivot and start giving money to one of the independent groups, right? >> yes, yes. you can see that in the contribution records to restore our future, the pro romney super pac which again has disclosed its donors. romney donors that are giving to the c-4s, we don't know. >> suarez: peter overby, good to see you >> thanks, glad to be here suarez: you can listen >> suarez: you can listen to peter's reports and see our examination of the spending data on our politics page. >> woodruff: we have more politics coming up, including the hard-fought massachusetts senate race, and other congressional contests to watch; plus, new clashes in the syrian city of aleppo; the record- breaking sky jump; and the legacy of arlen specter. but first, the other news of the day. here's hari sreenivasan.

>> sreenivasan: two americans won the 2012 nobel prize in economics today for research on market design and matching. it affects everything from placing doctors in the right hospitals to pairing students with the schools they most want. the honorees are alvin roth of harvard university, and currently a visiting professor at stanford university, and lloyd shapley, a professor emeritus at the university of california los angeles. wall street had a strong start to the week on news of rising retail sales and better-than- expected earnings at citigroup. the dow jones industrial average gained 95 points to close at 13,424. the nasdaq rose 20 points to close at 3064. a 14-year-old pakistani girl who was shot by a taliban gunman was flown to england today for medical treatment. we have a report from lindsey hilsum of independent television news. >> reporter: the ambulance drove slowly from birmingham airport. inside the girl was still sedated as she has been since the taliban bullet penetrated her skull. doctors from the queen elizabeth hospital who were already in

pakistan have been attending to her. they believe she has a reasonable chance of recovery in the unit which has treated thousands of soldiers injured in iraq and afghanistan. she left the military hospital this morning flying to the u.k. via dubai. >> she is an inspirational example to young people. it was a cowardly attack on her and her school friends trying to retaliate for her own campaign for good access to education for girls in pakistan. >> reporter: yesterday in krawchy, thousands demonstrated against the shooting. the crowds organized by one of pakistan's political parties, the n.q.m., but despite claims that the attack has united pakistanis, the islamist party who frequently stage protests against america have not come out on the streets to support

the teenager. they've named a school after the girl. a generation of girls who will never get an education if the taliban prevail. the tipping point. the fate of the girl has come to symbolize the choice pakistan faces. it can let the extremists have their way or reject them and everything they stand for.pe >> sreenivasan: in another development, more than 100 militants attacked a pakistani police station overnight south of peshawar. the incident triggered a gun battle that raged for several hours. at least six policemen were killed, including two who were beheaded. a dozen others were wounded. in the philippines, muslim rebels agreed to a peace pact with the government after decades of fighting. the framework deal will give the muslim minority broad autonomy in the south of the mostly roman catholic nation. in exchange, the rebels must end all violence. the pact was signed in manila's presidential palace. the country's president and the leader of the rebels spoke

afterward. >> good day. we extend the hand of friendship to the president and the people. we embark on the historic journey to rebuild our homeland. >> much work remains to be done in order to fully reap the fruits of this framework agreement. we have commitments and goals to achieve. >> sreenivasan: one al-qaeda- linked group, abu sayyaf, has not been part of the peace process. but negotiators said they hope the agreement will isolate the extremists. the u.s. food and drug administration has widened a warning about medicines made by a specialty pharmacy near boston. the new england compounding center sold tainted steroids linked to an outbreak of fungal meningitis. as of today, there were 212 cases nationwide, and at least 15 deaths. now the f.d.a. says it's investigating other illnesses that may be tied to the company's products. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to ray. >> suarez: and we return to politics.

the battle lines are drawn in this year's massachusetts senate race, where a republican incumbent is looking to survive in a blue state. gwen ifill has our report. >> yeah, yeah, ifill: for nine years ray flynn a staunch life-long democrat was the mayor of boston. this year he's working to re-elect a republican, scott brown. >> i see him with the veterans. he sits there and has a beer with the veterans and talks over all the issues. they love him for it. >> your u.s. senator scott brown ifill: in 2010 brown won the senate seat once held by ted kennedy by playing up his blue collar labor union roots, touring around the state in a pick-up truck and making a direct appeal to the state's independent voters >> i don't think people really identify with scott brown as a republican. i think they look at him as somebody who can really bring people together. you know what? his story is the story of most

of the people that live in this community. ( cheers and applause ) >> ifill: then there's tom menino, boston's current and longest serving mayor. he waited until just a few weeks ago to endorse fellow democrat elizabeth warren, but now he's counting on the harvard law professor to beat brown at his own game. >> just one of those phenomenons in this business where scott caught everybody off guard. he worked hard and he won. i think this time everybody understands that he's a very good retail politician. they're all watching and working harder than they ever have in the past. i've never seen folks more enthusiastic about a campaign than the elizabeth warren campaign >> ifill: the disagreement between menino and flynn reflects the stakes in a hard-fought and increasingly nasty senate campaign. the nation's most expensive. warren came to national prominence when she ran the panel that oversaw the national troubled asset relief program or

tarp with close ties to president obama and to liberal fund-raisers, her campaign announced today she's raised nearly $37 million, much of it from out of state. >> i'll vote for you hope so fill: brown was known to praise mr. obama and joe biden as well. he's raised more than $28 million. brown tells supporters that warren is not what she says she is. >> she says we need to invest in this and that. with all due respect that's code for need to take more money out of your pocketbooks and wallets and give it to washington where they're happy to spend it. >> reporter: warren, forced on the defensive in a race she was favored to win, insists brown is more conservative than he is willing to admit. >> scott brown stands with the millionaires. me? i don't want to go to washington to stand up for the millionaires, the billionaires, the big oil. i want to go to washington to fight for jobs for working people. >> ifill: on a rainy sunday morning brown rallied supporters

at a local pumpkin patch. among them sally russell who has voted for kennedy, president obama and brown. >> i work very hard on his first campaign. which surprised me. quite a bit. i thought he would do a good job. and the circumstances where senator kennedy had passed away. and i think he was... i'm not sure i was behind him as a person but as a senator i thought he was just outstanding. >> ifill: at town and country bowling lanes, diane travers, a democrat who supported brown two years ago said she's not so sure about him anymore >> i did vote for scott brown the last time because i felt very good vibes. i'm up and down. i have a feeling i'm going to go for elizabeth this time >> ifill: democrats outnumber republicans 3 to 1 in the deep blue bay state but republicans have won here statewide before including of course former governor romney but to win

re-election scott brown is counting on the uncommitted voters that make up fully half of the electorate to be his fire wall. >> we need somebody who is going to be truly bipartisan >> ifill: brown describes himself at nearly every campaign stop as part of a vanishing breed of capitol hill moderates. warren as an unrepentant liberal >> why would you send another extreme person down there to be in lock step with that agenda and create more gridlock? you wouldn't do it. you shouldn't do it. >> ifill: warren portrays herself as the outsider washington needs. >> i talk to people before i was ever in the race. they said to me, now, elizabeth, they said, you've never been in politics before so you need to understand this. it's going to be mean. it's going to be the worst thing you've ever seen but we sure hope you'll do it. i do have to say i think we need a better sales pitch. >> ifill: pollsters have been

taking the pulse of the state's voters >> the majority of independent voters in massachusetts really do want democrats to stay in control of the senate. i mean that's one of the real uphill battles that scott brown has been fighting. that's why you hear during the debates he'll say the word independent and bipartisan probably more than any other word. >> if you don't agree with my opponent, you know what she does? she attacks you >> ifill: we caught up with both campaigns this weekend >> i'm a republican from massachusetts so it's always an uphill battle to do it better, be more available, to be more accountable >> ifill: how much democratic support do you need to win? >> i don't know. we've had up to the, you know,... >> ifill: you don't know? 'm going to get a lot of democrats and a lot of independents and a lot of republicans >> ifill: what is it that you're saying to them that appeals? >> i don't have to say anything. i just have to show them my record of being the independent person that they sent down there, the guy that is not beholden to anybody >> ifill: there is concern that you're going to be a lock step democrat that you won't listen

to the other side >> that's the wrong way to look at it. the financial punches that have come at america's working families have not respected party. they've hit people, whether the people were democrats, republicans, independents, libertarians, vegetarians. it didn't make any difference. they just keep getting punched. >> ifill: both candidates are counting on women voters in a commonwealth that has never elected a woman senator or governor. the air waves are clogged with a round of ads with one accusing the other of bad faith on women's issues >> i mean all you have to do is is look at his voting record >> he had one chance to confirm a supreme court justice to uphold "roe v. wade." he voted no >> i'm very disappointed one vote to protect birth control >> scott brown says he's for women but he's not >> i'm elizabeth warren and i approve this message >> scott brown is pro-choice. he supports women's health care. he's for good jobs with equal pay. scott will fight for our families. coming from a house full of

women he wouldn't have it any other way. >> i'm scott brown and i approve this message. >> ifill: the vitriol has spilled over into their face-to-face debates >> one of the largest driving forces behind the high cost of education is administrative costs. as we know, professor warren makes about $350,000 to teach one course >> the women of massachusetts need a senator that can count on not some of the time but all of the time. >> ifill: massachusetts voters who tell pollsters they are unhappy with washington gridlock and are concerned about who will control the senate are paying attention. >> it really feels kind of fun to have massachusetts be a target in a national way because usually people just assume it's just a blue state. that's that >> well, i have it in the back of my mind that the last two years what scott brown has done has prepared himself for the election. so i'm a little nervous that he

might be moving more toward the conservative side. i lean more toward the liberal side >> i don't think that ms. warren is concerned about the citizens of massachusetts. i think she just wants to be a democrat, you know, to recapture and reclaim the seat that was held by a democrat in the state for a lot of years. >> ifill: with less than two dozen days left until the election and one more debate to go, warren and brown are stepping on the gas. >> i'm going to be out there working my skinny little fanny off over the next 24 days making this happen and here's what i want to know. are you ready to work to make it happen? ( cheers and applause ) >> do me a favor. don't go to bed on november 6 and say, darn, i should have done more. >> ifill: that is the message they both approve. >> suarez: online we >> suarez: online, we've posted a slideshow of photographs from gwen's trip.

>> woodruff: massachusetts is among the top senate contests our stewar stuart rothenberg ann page will be watching on election day. it's one of nine toss-up races on the ballot. those races are nevada, montana, indiana, wisconsin, virginia, connecticut and massachusetts. susan page is the washington bureau chief for usa today and stu rothenberg is also a columnist for roll call. thank you both for being with us. susan, republicans need to win four morrison at seats if president obama wins re-election to gain the majority. only three if governor romney wins. what are the prospects? >> a year ago we would have said it was good for republicans to take over the senate. they've had one disappointing outcome after another in these states it's a stretch for republicans to take control of the senate. they may gain a seat or two but i think it's unlikely they're going to get to control. >> i generally agree except i do

think the senate is still in play. the problem is republicans have to pull the inside straight. there are basically four or five states that democratic states that are competing in. they need to win four of those it's a tall order. it's more likely that the democrats had hold on to the senate than the republicans will win it. but i wouldn't discount republican chances entirely >> woodruff: let's talk about some of these competitive races. we just heard gwen's report on t' let's talk about missouri >> what a disaster for republicans >> woodruff: what a fascinating race >> i was talking to a republican vat who told me the republicans had a poll just a few days before todd akin made his ill advised comments about rape, legitimate rape. akin was up by a dozen points over democrat claire mccaskill. that race is tanked for republicans. akin refused to get out of the race. a lot of republicans wanted him out. he has stayed in. some conservatives think there may be an opportunity here but there's no doubt todd akin is a significant underdog against claire mccaskill who six

months ago looked like she had no chance of winning >> not just an underdog in missouri but a problem for republican candidates elsewhere. we've seen mitt romney in the presidential race trying hard to get women votes. the controversy over todd akin has been a problem for him. >> woodruff: one of the reasons that the romney campaign has continued not to endorse or stay behind todd akin. let's move on to wisconsin. susan, another woman candidate there tammy baldwin, congresswoman tammy baldwin running against the former governor tommy thompson >> the toss-ups that you mentioned at the beginning, i believe five of them have women candidates. a lot of them running for the senate. tammy baldwin, a congresswoman from wisconsin would break a barrier if she's elected to the senate. she would be the first openly gay member of the u.s. senate. what's remarkable about this is the degree to which it is not her sexual orientation has not been an issue to a big degree in

this race against tommy thompson the former governor. i think that says a lot about changing attitudes toward gays and lesbians >> we have it as a toss-upsetterly. the republicans were pretty enthusiastic about tommy thompson figuring he was a well known candidate statewide. he had good ratings. once this race engaged the democrats who were able to remind people what they don't like about tommy thompson, the fact that he has been around an awfully long time the republican view is that tammy baldwin is weak not because of her gender or because of her sexual preference but because she is a very, very liberal democrat. i have to remind republicans this is wisconsin. they've elected people like russ feingold and gaylord nelson over the years. that's not disqualifying. it's a close race. i probably would pit a pinky on the scale for baldwin. >> woodruff: arizona? this is a state, surprising. i mean, the democrats didn't really think they had a shot here >> six months ago democrats were enthusiastic always about

richard carmona but the republican reaction was this was arizona. democrats said the surgeon general under president bush had a good story. he's hispanic. no legislative record. republicans have had a hard time dealing with him. flake had a conservative attacking him on immigration saying he was too soft on immigration. this is becoming a competitive race. i think the republicans do have a slight advantage >> look at the demographics. increasing number of hispanics who are eligible to vote and vote in arizona. it's made the presidential race there a little closer. if you look down the road arizona which has been a pretty republican state is increasingly moving toward becoming a more puat >> woodruff: another race that's become a surprise, susan, is connecticut. linda mcmahon who had run statewide had a very rough time of it. former wrestling executive, pro es gtlwrcu ein.vexe now she's looking like she may have a shot.

>> that's right. in connecticut which we know is a pretty blue state and she came back, she fought again, she's run an interesting campaign. she's poured a lot of her own money into ads. that's one to watch >> there are second acts in american politics. this is a great case. linda mchand hired an entirely new consulting team. her consultants ran her as a business woman. this time they've talked about the fact that she went through personal bankruptciy, can identify with people who have real problems. chris murphy is a congressman, young, and this race has surprised republicans who six months ago didn't think they would be pouring money in. she has a chance here. this is a very blue state but she has a chance >> woodruff: campaigns do matter. finally virginia, stu. this is a very close race. former governor, former sisor wd to be a close race from the beginning. tim kaine has benefited from the fact that the president's job ratings have improved over the

past few months. obviously he was d.n.c. chairman kaine. george allen who lost a bitter race six years ago is back. he has a folks equality. kaine kind a little bit more professional, emphasizes that he's a successful politician in a successful governor. i think it's a very close race. i wouldn't know how to call it right now >> we've seen democratic senate candidates keep their distance from president obama even in states where he's likely to do well. that's not an option for tim kaine because they're too close to obama. he served as his dnc chairman. he has not tried to do that. he has tied his fortunes to barack obama for better or worse >> woodruff: if republicans had to scale back their senate, susan, in the house it's looking like the democratic hopes of taking over the majority are a long way >> more of... stu is more of an expert on house races than i am.

it seems highly unlikely that democrats will muster the number to take over control of the house. if you end up with a democratic senate and a republican-controlled house just like we have now how will we get things done in washington? if president obama is re-elected and there's a republican controlled house where the attitude of republican leaders toward president obama change? >> unlike 2006, 2008, '10 there is no partisan wave. while we began the cycle with congress' low ratings and all these incumbents are going to lose we don't see it now. i wouldn't be shocked with anything from a wash in the house to a democratic gain of ten seats. they need 25. it doesn't sound too far from 25. but it is. there's not enough districts in play for the democrats >> woodruff: it's fascinating most incumbents will be re-elected >> it looks like we're going back to the old story of my incumbent is okay. it's all the other ones who are bad. >> woodruff: we are delighted to have the two of you, stu rothenberg, susan page, thank

you >> thanks . >> suarez: now to syria, where the death toll continues to climb. and there are new reports that most of the weapons sent to aid the rebellion are ending up in the hands of islamic extremists. smoke mingled with sunset in aleppo, syria's largest city, as block-by-block battles rage between president bashar al assad fighters and rebels. >> the dead and dying, the innocent, the breast-feeding babies, the children and the old folk -- all i desire is that the world shows a little empathy for us. that is all i want. >> to the east internet videos showed casualties in the after math of an air strike. human rights watch reported sunday the assad regime is using cluster bombs in civilian areas.

they detonate above ground and scatter smaller bomblets. based on you-tube videos and eyewitness testimony the group said its analysts believe the bombs are older, russian munitions of soviet vintage. the syrian government denied it and russia's foreign minister argued there's no confirmation that the ordnance was supplied by russia. amid the massive human toll a cultural casualty, the mosque dating from the 12th century was partially destroyed over the weekend >> the syrian army defeated an armed terrorist group which was trying to occupy the mosque >> suarez: state tv said president assad orderednt urgeis repairs. rebels said the syrian army had been using the mosque as a base. meanwhile turkey, a former ally of assad, amassed troops and tacks along its frontier with syria as refugees kept streaming over the border >> right over there is my

village. there are so many refugees here now and the camps are overflowing. our village hen rg destroyed. houses have been burned. the regime has burned down many many homes. one of those homes was ours. >> suarez: for the second time in a week, the turks also forced a syria-bound flight to land in turkey. the armenian airliner was allowed to fly on after a search found it carried only humanitarian aide, but the flow of lethal assistance for the rebels was raising new questions. the "new york times" reported today that weapons principally from saudi arabia and katar are ending up mostly with hard-line islamist groups and jihaddists and not with more secular factions favored by western nations. the obama administration has so far declined to ship arms to syrian rebels, and the state department today reiterated the concerns about who is being armed. >> we've been clear from the beginning that there are issues here as to where this goes and

that we need to all work hard to ensure that extremists, jihaddists, al qaeda, other groups who don't share our larger interest in seeing a democratic syria emerge from all of this get their hands on weapons that can be used to exploit the situation. >> suarez: the u.s. is providing select groups with what it calls nonlethal assistance in the form of communications and logistics. for more on this i'm joined for more on this, i'm joined by philip mudd, a former c.i.a. analyst who is now with the new america foundation. and paul pillar, also a career intelligence officer with the c.i.a. he's now a professor at georgetown university. philip mudd, this is a revolution that began with shop keepers, students, cab drivers, and army deserters. but david sanger in this morning's times indicates that now a greater and greater role is being taken up by jihadis.

is there a problem? >> i'm not sure i'd sail it's a greater role but they have a role they're looking for in the middle east. they're in iraq five, six, seven years ago fighting u.s. forces. they're looking for a new place to fight. i suspect a lot of syrians in the fight are saying these guys are with us for the moment. we'll sort this out if we ever take out assad. but i'm not sure i would be greatly concerned now. it's a problem. it's not a big problem yet. >> suarez: what about the report that the flow of weapons heavily favors those guys? >> look, you have a choice to make in this situation. either you focus on the ouster of assad which might mean working with people you don't necessarily like. or you look at our american values and the values of people in places like western europe and you say some of these jihaddists are people we're uncomfort able with and therefore we should not ship them weapons. tough choice. you want to take out assad as rapidly as possible or do you want to avoid siding with people who you might be uncomfortable with? >> suarez: paul pillar, do you sort it out that way? >> yes, i do. what this most reminds me of is the assistance of rebels against

the soviets in afghanistan going back more than 20 years. the united states and the saudis and others provided assistance mostly through the pakistanis. there were several rebel elements some of which we would describe as hard-line islamists. they happened to be the most effective fighters against the soviets. we shouldn't be surprised if in a situation like syria, some of the groups that we would describe as hard-line islam i haves are some of the more effective fighters but basically we have a very confused situation on the opposition side. we have something called the free syrian army bull it's not really an army. that's sort of an umbrella term we've applied to a motley set of groups that run the whole gamut from jihaddist to those we might be more comfortable with politically >> suarez: but didn't that same experience -- arming the resistance against the soviets in afghanistan -- become the petary dish from which grew al qaeda? >> it did in a sense even though there wasn't u.s. assistance going directly to what became al

qaeda, you had a group like a militia which now we think of them as having thrown the lot in with the taliban. i'm not predicting the same thing would have happened in syria but we should remember once the regime that was left by the soviets in afghanistan was overthrown in 1992, then these various parties that we and others have been assisting immediately went to next phase of the civil war which is fighting against each other. >> suarez: isn't there a law of unpredictability that sets in? as is the case in a much more proximate country, libya? where a similar sort of revolution rose from the streets and now, you know, we've had terrorist attacks in benghazi >> i think that's right. i mean, you look at this situation. this is not clean diplomacy you find in a magazine. this is war. and the choice you're going to have to make here is is do you accelerate assad's decline by spoaring people you don't like? or do you step back and say we're uncomfortable with these folks?

as paul said we've seen this problem play out in afghanistan. we don't want to support these guys. either decision is fraught with peril. and the decision of aiding the jihadis, i think, would take you down potentially to aiding people who oppose the united states. >> suarez: what is the use of cluster bombs tell you? it looks like assad is ready and has been ready to make war on his people in a way that bloodier and bloodier with each passing month >> i wouldn't place a lot of significance on this particular step in terms of these munitions. it's part of a longer process of the regime having escalated the level of violence, the level of brutality. we should note that cluster munitions there's an international convention that prohibits them that came into effect two years ago. but some important governments including our own have not ascribed to it and neither have the syrians. >> suarez: philip mudd, the turkish interception of an aircraft bound for aleppo represents an escalation in what surrounding countries ready to

do to cut off syria. >> i think it's a minor escalation but the significant story i think is broader. look, in the past month or so you've had an expansion of refugees on the turkish border coming in from syria. you've had moat or strikes and other strikes coming across from syria, the syrian army into turkey. you have the turkish general staff and politicians saying we have to ratchet up the pressure on assad. isn't just a foreign policy issue. this is a domestic security issue within the country. i think this is a message to assad saying if you keep this up across the border we're going to find every way we can to get you out there. >> suarez: there are now over 100,000 refugees having crossed into syria. syria seems to be waiting for help from the rest of the world but has to handle the escalation on its own. >> well, there are no good solutions to this one. you know, the turkish angle is certainly one of the most important ones because the turks'' hand has been forced. not only are there civilians getting killed by mortar attacks

across the border but also the refugee situation and probably that $100,000 figure is on the low side because there are a lot of more unregistered ones. as for the interception of the aircraft if the prime minister is going to make good on his declared goal to get rid of assad the least they can do is control their air space. that happens to be part of the space through which supply flights go. >> suarez: each week brings new outrage as we saw the destruction of the mosque, the burning of the suk in aleppo, another world heritage site. more than 25,000 people dead now. where do you see this going in the weeks? >> i think what i see is there's one critical card here. that is how long does the syrian military support assad? this isn't in my view a question of assad. it's whether the military says we'll stick with you as you massacre syrian civilians. the surprise for the past 17 or 18 months is that the syrian populous is willing to stay out there.

my guess is over time if the syrian population is able to stay out there through tens of thousands of casualties at some point the military is going to say enough >> suarez: do you see that? this could go on for quite some time. particularly because there's the sectarian dimension we didn't have, for example, in libya. you've got the group who sees their lives and their stake tied to the regime. it's not just one ruling family and not just one dictator. this could go on for quite some time. >> suarez: thank you both. >> woodruff: next, the highest and fastest jump in history-- not just the records, but the science and the man who did it. for that story, we turn again to hari sreenivasan. here we go sreenivasan: felix baumgartner was in the stratosphere more than 24 miles above earth when he emerged from a capsule on sunday >> there it is. there's the world out there

>> sreenivasan: in his ear the voice of joe, the retired air force colonel who set a record in 1960 with a jump from 102,000 feet. >> the guard and angell will take care you >> sreenivasan: the 43-year-old daredevil began his own fall, four miles higher than ever attempted before. for 35 seconds, baumgartner's dive spun out of control. amid fears he could lose consciousness. then baumgartner regained control and continued his free fall for nearly four more minutes reaching a speed of almost 834 miles an hour at one point, faster than the speed of sound. another record. when he descendd to 5,000 feet baumgartner opened his parachute and eventually landed safely on his feet. ( cheers and applause ) >> a new world record holder sreenivasan: afterward he explained what happened in the first minute of his dive >> it started really good because my exit was perfect.

i did exactly what i was supposed to do. then i was falling over. it looked like for a second i'm going to tumble two more times and then i have it on the control. for some reason that spin became so violent. it was hard to know how to get out of that spin like swimming without touching the water. it's hard because every time when it turns you around you have to figure out what to do. i was sticking my arm out. it became worse. i had aate lot of pressure in my head. but it didn't feel like i'm passing out. i was still feeling okay. i think i can handle this situation. >> sreenivasan: more than eight million people watched the jump on a live stream global feed from the event's sponsor red bull. for more we turn to newshour science correspondent miles o'brien who joins us tonight from detroit. miles, aside from the record chase, aside from the amazing marketing opportunity for a sports drink, why do this? is there some science we're learning here? >> absolutely, hari. it's never been done before. the fact that the last time this

happened in any manner was 52 years ago. it tells you there were more things to learn. a human being had never traveled super sonic just in a suit. while the experts and all the technical people i've spoken with said they fully expected this would be just fine, it hadn't been done. he was heavily instrumented. it gave them an awful lot of information and data about survival of a human being under great during he is. what if there were a rocket of some kind, a space ship and there was some sort of ejection scenario, we know a little bit more about a human being might survive that >> what were some of the other risks. obviously the big one is that you hit the ground without parachute. what were some of the risks of a flat spin or dead spin >> that flat spin you saw, that image which we've seen just recently from his suit really will make your stomach turn when you think about it. but the fact is as he spun and spun faster and faster, the

force coffeesly put him into a blackout situation and perhaps much worse. fortunately, just as things were getting right to the edge, he got to the point in the atmosphere where he had a little bit of resistance from air molecules and was able to right himself as he was trained to do over all these years as a skydiver. so that was a big risk. he got through it. >> sreenivasan: tell us a little bit more about felix ball baumgartner. who is he? >> joe was an air force veteran silver star vietnam veteran, spent some time as a prisoner of war in hanoi. felix baumgartner is a different cat. he's a base-jumper. the kind of guy who jumps off buildings and bridges and cliffs and into caves. he has used carbon fiber wings to actually span the entire english channel. he's a daredevil by profession. but what was interesting about this was it wasn't just about the dare. there was a very interesting piece of science in all of this

>> sreenivasan: you had a chance to talk to some of the folks behind him, the team behind. one of them, the doctor, really has an interesting back story >> well, jonathan clark who is a nasa veteran and was a part of the medical team in the shuttle program, his deceased wife laurel clark was on board columbia so he has a professional interest which also overlaps a deep personal interest in survival at high altitudes under during he is. so it's interesting, you know, you would excuse a man in this profession of understanding how people can survive these situations for walking away from that but instead he was a part of the columbia accident investigation helping the team understand how the crew perished and how you might be able to save a crew in a similar situation in the future. he was a part of this team. >> sreenivasan: also interesting that the only voice inside baumgartner's head is the man who is really the only person on

the planet who knows what it feels like >> you couldn't write a better hollywood script than that. could you? except maybe it happened over the land of u.f.o.s, unidentified falling objects. of course he was identitied. it was perfect >> sreenivasan: let's talk about the social nature of this. in the u.s. there were seven football games going on. there was broadcast in 50 different countries and eight million people logged in at the same time and watched it on the internet >> it's 21st century marketing brilliance. red bull has cracked the code. as we all shift through these tectonic changes in the media world which you and i are so familiar with, right now, hari, red bull has really figured out how to reach an audience and how to identify an event like this, gather a huge mass audience and have it linked so integrally to its brand. it's perfectly on brand what they do. and they market it in just the right way. i think they figured out how to market to the masses by-passing

all the channels we're used to >> sreenivasan: what's next for this guy felix baumgartner? >> you know, he said he's done. he wants to go back to flying helicopters and doing normal things as it were. i suspect, however, i suspect there will be another adventure that will come his way and he will be tempted. don't you think? >> sreenivasan: absolutely. miles o'brien. science correspondent from newshour. thanks so much >> you're welcome sreenivasan: you can watch videos of... >> suarez: finally tonight , a longtime senator revered by both parties passed away over the weekend. kwame holman reports. reporter: for three decades arlen specter was a leading moderate in the u.s. senate. his name never was on major legislation but he made his mark as a maverick. in 1987 as a republican, he opposed the nomination of conservative robert bork to the u.s. supreme court, joining democrats in challenging bork

during confirmation hearings >> you said it was controversial. i think it was that controversial because there was no legal underpinning for it. >> senator, i think there was. reporter: four years later specter supported clarence thomas' nomination and outraged liberals with his aggressionive questioning of anita hill after she accused thomas of sexual harassment >> how could you allow this kind of reprehensible conduct to go on right in the headquarters without doing something about it? >> well, it was a very trying and difficult decision for me not to say anything further. >> reporter: in 2005 as he battled cancer, specter looked back on those political fights with the newshour's gwen ifill. >> i'm still hearing about my vote against judge bork. i'm still hearing about my questioninquestioning professor.

i called those shots as i saw them. and i think that history will vindicate me on them, gwen. >> reporter: specter got into politics in the 1960s as a democrat and prosecutor in philadelphia. and he helped ves tbait the assassination of president kennedy, developing the single-bullet theory of the killing. in 1980 he had won his senate seat in the reagan landslide that year. but as the years went by, specter increasingly angered g.o.p. conservatives. in early 2009 he voted for president obama's stimulus bill. and within weeks with the president and vice president looking on, he switched back to the democrats. specter's switch gave senate democrats the 60 votes to overcome filibusters and helped them pass health care reform. campaigning in 2010 he charged republicans had moved too far to the right. >> if you don't cotton up to the

tea party gang you're no good >> reporter: it was in keeping with his years of courting pennsylvania's blue collar workers and labor unions >> we've been with him for a long, long time. he's never let us down. he's been true to his word, honest man. >> reporter: despite that sentiment and president obama's support spect lost the 2010 democratic primary to congressman joe sestak. along the way over two decades specter repeatedly fought off cancer but in late august he confirmd he was ailing again this time with non-hodgkins lymphoma and yesterday came word he had died at his home in philadelphia at age 82. in a statement the president summed uper specthe's long carer saying or lien was fiercely independent, never putting party or ideology ahead of the people he was chosen to serve. the funeral will be tomorrowpe n pennsylvania. the vice president will attend. >> suarez: you can read the transcript from gwen's 2005

interview with specter on our website and an on-line note about hari's story about the skydiver. we have videos of the jump and past jumps plus a graphic of his space suit and capsule all on our website. >> woodruff: again, the other major developments of the day. the presidential candidates stayed mostly behind closed doors to prepare for tomorrow's town hall debate. and a 14-year-old pakistani girl was flown to england for treatment after being shot in the head by the taliban for promoting girls' education. >> suarez: and online on our making sense page, economist larry kotlikoff answers your social security questions every monday. this week: adding medicaid without losing benefits. and producer dan sagalyn finishes his in depth series focusing on the strait of hormuz and irans threat to mine the chokepoint. all that and more is on our web site, newshour.pbs.org. and that's the newshour for tonight. on tuesday, we'll look at the rematch between president obama

and mitt romney, as they meet in a town hall debate. i'm ray suarez. >> woodruff: and i'm judy woodruff. we'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening. thank you, and good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: moving our economy for 160 years. bnsf, the engine that connects us. >> intel. sponsors of tomorrow.

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